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- Tchicaya Robertson
- Jan 19
- 6 min read
By Tchicaya Ellis Robertson, PhD with Candace Ellis Clark, BS
Close to one million Black women ages 20+ were unemployed in November 2025, a 7.1% unemployment rate, according to BLS household survey data. The official data is already loud, and it carries direct consequences for how resumes will be screened in 2026. Think about this scale in human terms; almost 1M families who rely on a Black woman as head of household have lost their lunch money, bill money, transportation money, money to fill prescriptions. Yet, we are still talking about the initial shock of just 300,000 Black women who exited the workforce in 2025 as if it were the end of the story.
It wasn’t. The public conversation keeps landing on a number that, according to media reporting, has at least doubled since then. The disruption is much larger than the initial job loss. It is pouring into systems that don’t account for ongoing and long-term unemployment and labor force exits. This is no longer a warning, it is a clarion call with debilitating downstream effects. One of which falls squarely onto the desks of HR leaders responsible for finding talent to power the AI skilling revolution.
2026 hiring systems are not designed to handle algorithmic omissions like the one that resulted from the mass exodus of Black women in 2025. When a large cohort carries disruption into the market at the same time, “gap” stops being an exception and becomes a pattern. Most screening logic still treats it like an individual flaw: instability, risk, or lack of commitment. A missing job title gets read as a red flag. A nontraditional stretch of work gets treated as less credible than payroll work, even when the responsibilities were just as complex, just as demanding, and just as leadership-heavy.
This is how inequity becomes durable. Not only through layoffs or labor force exits, but through the second wave of harm that comes after: how the market interprets the people who were hit. When hundreds of thousands of Black women experience disruption in the same tight window, we should treat that as a macro labor market event, not an individual deficiency.
Now layer in what is changing inside employers. More organizations are standardizing screening. More are using structured interview guides, competency models, and AI-enabled tools to “improve consistency.” In theory, that consistency is supposed to reduce bias. In practice, it can scale the wrong assumption faster if the baseline story is incomplete.
If your systems are trained to treat gaps as risk, and a disproportionate share of Black women now have gaps, you have the ingredients for disparate impact even before you add a single biased prompt. You do not have to intend discrimination for your process to produce it. You only have to keep using a rule of thumb that was never designed for a labor market shock of this size. The problem is that this inaction is no longer legally defensible. Check out my blog on the new laws that went into effect on January 1, 2026.
What the data shows, in plain view
Before we get too deep into the AI layer, we must anchor to the labor market context. Based on data published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the scale of the disproportionate talent disruption is impossible to dismiss. The data in Table 1 shows that Black women’s unemployment rate hovered in the mid-5% range through early 2025, then surged past 6% in April, the inflection point when their jobless rate began sharply diverging from other groups, and climbed to over 7% for the remainder of the year, peaking at 7.5% in late summer.
Meanwhile, the unemployment rate for White women remained comparatively steady around the mid-3% range, inching from 3.2% to 3.4% between August and September.
In other words, what started as a concerning gap turned into a chasm, a labor market disruption disproportionately affecting Black women. By mid-2025, unemployment among Black women was double that of White women, and the gap holds through the back half of the year.
This is not a small gap. It is the labor market signal that your hiring stack is about to misread at scale.
The data tells you what is happening, but it doesn’t explain why. And what is happening is that Black women are absorbing a disproportionate amount of labor market instability, and the recovery pattern is not obvious in the trend.
Now here is why that matters for HR leaders.
The hundreds of thousands of Black women that exited the workforce is not just a labor market story. It is a hiring reality.
When the rate of disruption doubles in a matter of months, not years, the downstream effect is not simply that more people are unemployed. The downstream effect is that a large cohort carries the same kinds of resume patterns into the market at the same time:
gaps and compressed timelines
pivots into contract work, caregiving, or entrepreneurship
leadership activity that is real but not payroll-labeled
credential sprints, portfolio builds, informal consulting
non-linear narratives that do not map to traditional “progression” templates
A human can read that as adaptation. A hiring pipeline can read it as risk.
And this is where many organizations will quietly fail their own talent goals.
Because if your screening logic treats a macroeconomic shock as an individual deficiency, you will filter out capable people precisely when you need them.
“Gap” is not the problem. The interpretation of the gap is the problem.
Many Black women did not stop producing value during periods of disruption. They redirected time into leadership and high-responsibility work that hiring systems often do not capture well, such as:
caregiving operations and household leadership under constraint
volunteer executive leadership, board and community governance
credentialing, apprenticeships, portfolio projects
consulting, venture building, informal advising and coaching
crisis management, resource coordination, complex logistics
These are leadership signals. They are evidence of capability. Figure 1 contextualizes this problem and offers a method for leaders to evaluate these capability signals.
Figure 1.
But too often, hiring stacks only recognize leadership when it appears under a conventional employer and title. So the same year can be encoded as either:
a negative “gap,” or
a credible “experience narrative”
When a cohort disruption hits one group harder than others, that encoding gap becomes a selection gap.
Where AI makes this worse, quickly
Even if your organization does not use fully automated hiring decisions, most HR teams now use some combination of:
resume parsing and structured profiles
screening and ranking tools
LLM-based copilots that draft candidate summaries and “fit” language
retrieval over internal rubrics and “what good looks like” guidance
These tools shape what evidence is surfaced and how it is framed. That framing influences screening decisions, interview design, and the tone of deliberations. When those effects are patterned across a cohort, selection rates shift and disparities compound.
This is why it is so important to develop and operationalize omission-aware metrics.
The technical failure hiding inside the hiring conversation is omission
A lot of bias work focuses on what a model says.
The higher-leverage problem here is what the system fails to recognize at all.
If a candidate’s 2025 story includes leadership, governance, operations, or credential-building, but the system does not extract it, summarize it, or treat it as relevant, the candidate is penalized before the interview begins. That is omission. And when a labor shock pushes one group into less “legible” pathways, omission becomes patterned disadvantage.
In practical terms: you can have a fair intent and still deploy a system that consistently downgrades the same group.
A direct message to HR leaders: this belongs in your 2026 hiring plan
If you are an HR leader planning for growth, retention, and leadership pipeline stability, you cannot afford to treat hundreds of thousands of Black women who exited the workforce as a social issue living outside your talent strategy. It is a talent supply issue, a capability recognition issue, and a business continuity issue.
Here is what “considering it” actually means:
Update what your organization counts as experience
Create and socialize a taxonomy of legitimate leadership and responsibility signals that count during disruption, including unpaid or non-linear roles.
Audit your screening stack for gap penalties
Test how your tools treat gaps and pivots. Look for automatic downgrades in seniority, “flight risk” language, or reduced interview recommendations.
Train recruiters and hiring managers on narrative discipline
If your internal norm is “gap equals concern,” your tools will learn it, reinforce it, and scale it.
Hold vendors accountable for omission and narrative bias
Ask vendors to demonstrate how their models recognize nontraditional leadership and how they prevent systematic downgrading of disrupted cohorts.
Include the right interview questions in the hiring rubric
When you see resume disruptions, ask candidates what they built, lead, or learned during those periods, rather than assume that gaps signal risk.
Why this matters for the labor market, not just individual careers
If a cohort of roughly 800,000 Black women is economically sidelined and then re-enters through nontraditional pathways, the question is not whether employers will hire them. Employers will hire some.
The question is whether hiring systems will recognize their capability fast enough to prevent long-term scarring: lower earnings trajectories, reduced leadership representation, thinner internal pipelines, and a durable “experience penalty” that outlasts the shock that created it.
This is a solvable problem. But it is not solvable through good intentions alone.
It requires a shift in what we measure, what we count as evidence, and what our tools are allowed to omit.
And for HR leaders, addressing it is not charity. It is capacity. It is competitiveness. It is the difference between building a resilient workforce and quietly automating away the very talent you say you cannot find.
